The World Bank is projecting that Ghana’s economy will be the fifth fastest growing economy in sub-Saharan Africa in 2012.The bank has also forecast that annualise growth will average at a little over seven per cent in the year and will be greatly influenced by the present firming prices of gold and other minerals, cocoa and crude which are the key drivers of the country’s export earnings.
It, however, did not mention the exact growth rate for the country.
The bank’s forecast comes weeks after provisional GDP figures from the Ghana Statistical Service showed that the economy will grow at 7.1 per cent in 2012 as against the government’s projected 9.4 per cent growth in 2012.
Sierra Leone is expected to grow at 25 per cent in 2012 and consequently become the fastest in the region in the year, the bank said in its latest report, Africa’s Pulse, released on Thursday.
Sierra Leone’s projected growth rate, if achieved, will become the highest annualised growth in the country’s economic history.
Niger, Angola, China and Rwanda are expected to be the second, third and fourth fastest growing economies in 2012, the report added.
According to the bank, countries in sub-Saharan Africa, minus South Africa, will grow at 4.8 per cent in 2011, compared to last year’s growth rate of 4.9 per cent.
The report noted that the region’s 2012 growth rate would be buoyed by the present rising commodity prices on the international market.
The prices of minerals, cocoa and crude – the key exports of countries in the region – have been on a consistent rise in the past months. Indications are that the expected rise in export earnings (resulting from the increasing prices) will feed into the various sectors of the respective economies, including Ghana, thereby pushing growth upward.
The bank’s Africa’s Pulse report is a biennial document from the bank that analyses the economic prospects of the sub-region vis-à-vis the implications of global occurrences such as the present rise in commodity prices, poor harvest of grains in the United States of America, Russia and most parts of Europe and a slowdown in growth in key economies in the west on the economic prospects of countries in sub-Saharan Africa.
The release of the report was followed by a video conference which was relayed from the World Bank’s head office in Washington DC, USA, to some journalists in 10 African countries, including Ghana.
The Chief Economist of the World Bank, Mr Shantan Deverajan, and a Lead Economist at the bank, Ms Punam Chuhan-Pole, led discussions on the report.
On the authenticity of the bank’s figures on Ghana, given the political backlash it has often received, Mr Deverajan said, “we are aware of those comments but what I can say is that we do a lot of research before coming out with out data. We stand by them too,” he added.
He admitted during the conference that although growth in sub-Saharan Africa had remained strong over the past few years, the populace of the various countries were yet to feel the real substance of that growth due to the inability of the various governments to spread the growth to the informal sector.
“If they want to feel that growth, then they have to improve productivity in the informal sector and get more people employed in those areas,” World Bank’s Chief Economist said.
He also mentioned the slowdown in growth in China, the USA and the sovereign debt crisis in the Europe and the poor harvest of grains in Russia, USA and most parts of Europe as some of the risks that the sub-region would have to content with in 2012.
On the global front, Mr Deverajan said “global GDP is expected to grow at a relatively weak pace of 2.3 per cent in 2012.”
“Global growth is projected to rise to 2.6 per cent in 2013,” he added.
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