Suicide bombers kill at least 10 in Cameroon

http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/13/africa/cameroon-suicide-bombig/index.html

(CNN)Two female suicide bombers killed at least 10 people and injured 12 at a mosque on Cameroon's northern border with Nigeria, the Far North Region's governor, Midjiyawa Bakari, said Wednesday. 

Cameroon's Far North Region flanks northeast Nigeria, heartland of the jihadist terror group Boko Haram, and has become a frequent target for the group's insurgents.

There was no immediate confirmation that Boko Haram was behind the latest attacks. But the terror group has also been expanding its operations from its Nigerian base to other neighboring countries, including Niger, Benin and Chad.

This is despite the existence of a multinational military force of 8,700 soldiers set up to fight the insurgents. 

Boko Haram has previously used female suicide bombers in its attacks. In November, five members of the same family and a soldier were killed when two female suicide bombers struck in the town of Dabanga, near the Nigerian border. Hours later, five others were killed in the village of Gouzoudou, also near the Nigerian border.

A week earlier, at least six people were killed by suicide bombers in the Cameroonian town of Military officials blamed Boko Haram for all three attacks.

Bombings, kidnappings

Boko Haram aims to institute Sharia, or Islamic law. It has carried out a campaign of terror in northern Nigeria, killing thousands, taking hundreds captive, and occupying swaths of territory in Borno state.

It has perpetrated bombings of marketplaces, churches, mosques and other public gathering spots. 

Kidnappings are one of the group's hallmarks, the most notorious coming in April 2014, when it abducted more than 200 girls from a school in the northeastern Nigerian city of Chibok.

In an annual report released in November, the Global Terrorism Index, Boko Haram was listed as the world's deadliest terror group of the previous year, responsible for 6,644 deaths.

ISIS, in second place, was responsible for 6,073 killings in 2014, the report said.

CNN's Marilia Brocchetto and Eliott C. McLaughlin, and journalist Moki Edwin Kindzeka in Yaoundé, Cameroon, contributed to this report.

'Gross institutional failure' by UN on child sex abuse case

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/12/17/gross-institutional-failure-by-un-on-child-sex-abuse-case.html

The United Nations' "gross institutional failure" to act on allegations that French and other peacekeepers sexually abused children in the Central African Republic led to even more assaults, according to a new report released Thursday.

One young boy who initially reported an attack on his friends now says he has been raped, too.

The independent panel found that the accounts by children as young as 9 of trading oral sex and other acts in exchange for food in the middle of a war zone in early 2014 were "passed from desk to desk, inbox to inbox, across multiple U.N. offices, with no one willing to take responsibility." 

Among those said to have looked the other way were the U.N. children's agency, UNICEF, as well as human rights staffers.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, in a statement, expressed "profound regret that these children were betrayed by the very people sent to protect them" and said he accepted the panel's broad findings.

The panel, led by Canadian judge Marie Deschamps, found that U.N. staffers failed or hesitated to pass the children's allegations to more senior officials, sometimes because of political concerns with France involved; showed "unconscionable delays" in protecting and supporting the children; failed to further investigate the allegations; failed to properly vet peacekeepers for past abuses; and, overall, appeared more concerned with whether one U.N. staffer had improperly alerted French authorities.

"The welfare of the victims and the accountability of the perpetrators appeared to be an afterthought, if considered at all," the report says.

As of now, more than a year and a half after U.N. staffers first heard the children's allegations of sexual abuse, no one has been arrested.

The report lays bare one of the most persistent and embarrassing problems for the U.N. and its member countries as tens of thousands of peacekeepers serve in some of the world's most volatile areas: Some vulnerable people are raped by their protectors, and often no one is punished. Many victims are children.

The children in Central African Republic's capital, Bangui, reported the abuses in the middle of deadly chaos. The country had been ripped apart by violence between Christians and Muslims, and thousands of frightened people had sought shelter in squalid camps at the airport. French and other peacekeepers were trying to establish security.

The children told U.N. staffers that they had been hungry and did what the peacekeepers asked in return for food. Almost a year passed before such allegations by a half-dozen children were made public in media reports this past April and May, leading Ban to order the independent investigation. Only then, the new report says, did the U.N. follow up with the children it had interviewed months ago and ensure their care.

At that point, a new round of interviews found that "some children alleged further cases of sexual abuse by peacekeepers," the report says. And additional children reported abuse.

One child, who a year earlier at age 11 had told U.N. staffers about watching peacekeepers rape his friends, "now reported that he himself had been orally and anally raped."

The panel found it "appalling" that the children didn't receive immediate medical care. While UNICEF had referred the children to a local NGO partner for medical support, the panel found that in reality a social worker "devoted a total of two hours ... to listening to the children and filling out forms required by UNICEF."

The report also calls UNICEF's failure to seek out other potential victims a "serious breach" of the agency's duty to protect children.

Meanwhile, the children's allegations took months to reach top U.N. officials. The report says the head of the U.N. peacekeeping mission in Central African Republic, Babacar Gaye, was told several times about the allegations, beginning June 1, 2014, and did not act.

In August of this year, in an unprecedented move, the U.N. secretary-general told Gaye to resign.

The report says France "took strong and immediate action" to investigate after receiving a U.N. document with the allegations in July 2014, but it called that a "stark contrast to the apparent failure of French authorities to react" in May 2014, when the U.N. human rights staffer who had interviewed the children says she spoke with French military officials.

Once the French government was informed, the report says, U.N. officials didn't follow up on the allegations because they assumed the French were handling it.

But French authorities have said they were delayed for several months by U.N. bureaucracy. Information from the U.N. started flowing after the first media reports on the allegations emerged. And one year after French authorities first arrived in Central African Republic to investigate, the report says, the U.N. allowed the human rights staffer who had interviewed the children to participate in the French investigation as a witness.

The long delay, the report says, has hurt the chances for accountability in a case involving "the most vulnerable segment of society: unaccompanied, internally displaced and hungry, young children."

U.N. officials have pointed out that the French peacekeepers were not part of the U.N. peacekeeping force that later arrived in Central African Republic, but the panel said the U.N.'s responsibility to protect human rights requires immediate action on such allegations, no matter what.

"Indeed, for victims of sexual violence, it is immaterial whether the perpetrator was wearing a blue helmet or not," the report says.

U.N. officials also have accused the human rights official who first handed French authorities the report describing the allegations, Anders Kompass, of breaching policy by not redacting the children's names. The report dismissed that argument and found that the former head of the U.N. internal oversight office abused her authority in improperly opening an investigation into Kompass in response to the "single-minded determination" of the U.N. human rights chief, Zeid Raad al-Hussein.

If the concerns about redacting the names and protecting the children from possible reprisals were real, the panel said, the U.N. would have acted to offer protection. "Instead, no one took any steps whatsoever to locate the children."

Zimbabwe VP Emmerson Mnangagwa's office broken into

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-35308230

Intruders have broken into the office of Zimbabwe's vice president - considered President Robert Mugabe's heir apparent - through the ceiling.

Debris from Emmerson Mnangagwa's office ceiling was shown on state TV along with tears to his leather sofa. There was no sign of damage to the door.

The police are investigating, State Security Minister Kembo Mohadi said. 

Factions in the governing Zanu-PF party disagree over who should succeed the president. who turns 92 in February. 

Celebrations for Mr Mugabe's birthday are to be held in the south-eastern Masvingo province for the first time, local media reported.

Mr Mugabe is currently on holiday with his family in east Asia, his office said.

Central African Republic elections referendum Africa Volatile Central Africa Republic votes in crucial referendum

The Central African Republic began voting Sunday in a referendum aimed at ending the nation's bloody sectarian strife.

In the capital Bangui, voting began late in several districts and had yet to begin in the volatile Muslim-majority PK5 district, where gunfire broke out overnight, a UN peacekeeping source said.

http://www.france24.com/en/20151213-volatile-central-africa-votes-crucial-referendum

Authorities were setting up an alternative polling station after the unrest forced the closure of a school where voting had been set to take place.

After more than two years of fighting that forced 10 percent of the population to flee the country, Sunday's vote on a new constitution is seen as a test run for presidential and parliamentary polls in two weeks.

But despite the presence of 11,000 UN and French peacekeepers, part of the impoverished country remains out of bounds, under the control of either rebel chieftains or bandits.

UN peacekeepers must escort convoys of trucks carrying voting slips that leave every day from Bangui for the interior, given the volatile situation in parts of the country.

The widespread chaos has hampered organisation of the ballot by the country's interim authorities, with few election posters visible on the streets just 48 hours beforehand.

More significantly, only 15,000 copies of the new constitution have been printed, meaning that few voters are fully aware of its contents.

Almost two million Central Africans have registered to vote in a population of 4.8 million -- spurring hopes the election will be the first step in a return to peace and normalcy.

South Africa's ruling ANC welcomes Gordhan's return to finance ministry

http://www.france24.com/en/20151214-zuma-south-africa-anc-welcomes-pravin-gordhans-return-finance-ministry

South Africa's ruling ANC party on Monday welcomed President Jacob Zuma’s reappointment of Pravin Gordhan as finance minister, in a dramatic U-turn that gave Africa's most advanced economy its third finance chief in a week.

The ANC said the decision was an "explicit demonstration of a responsive and accountable government".

The shock announcement restoring Gordhan to the post sent the rand surging nearly 5 percent on Sunday evening, an upward trend that continued well into Monday morning as the battered South African currency strengthened more than 4.5 percent in early trade. Yet the overall market rebound failed to quell a tide of criticism of the president.

“This is reckless by President Zuma, he is playing Russian roulette with the South African economy,” opposition Democratic Alliance leader Mmusi Maimane said.

Zuma sacked Nhlanhla Nene from the ministry late last Wednesday, sparking a wave of criticism and financial turmoil, and replaced him with the relatively unknown lawmaker David van Rooyen. Nene’s reluctance to rubber-stamp an ambitious plan to build a number of nuclear power stations to ease severe electricity shortages, a project that might cost as much as $100 billion, is also seen as contributing to his downfall.

The removal of Nene, who was keen to rein in government spending in Africa’s most industrialised nation, sent the rand currency to record lows, sparked a sell-off in bank stocks and sent yields in both local and dollar-denominated debt soaring.

The JSE All-share index, just slightly up 2 percent Monday morning, had shed close to 170 billion rand ($10.68 billion) between Thursday and Friday alone.

Credit agency Fitch had already downgraded South Africa on Dec. 4, leaving the continent’s most sophisticated economy just one notch above “junk” status, and said on Thursday Nene’s firing “raised more negative than positive questions”.

"The markets will welcome back Gordhan to National Treasury," Rand Merchant Bank's currency strategist John Cairns said. "He is a known entity, is his own man and did well when in the post previously. But it is certainly unreasonable to expect all of last week's losses to be reversed - a huge amount of uncertainty has been created in the past few days."

A Reuters poll on Wednesday showed analysts expect the economy to grow just 1.4 percent this year and 1.6 percent next, 0.1 percentage point lower than last month’s forecasts.

“Discipline And Prudence”

Sunday's presidency statement said Gordhan’s role would include “promoting and strengthening the fiscal discipline and prudence” and “working with the financial sector so that its stability is preserved".

It called for “adherence to the set expenditure ceiling while maintaining a stable trajectory of our debt portfolio, as set out in the February 2015 Budget”.

The statement also called for “more inclusive growth and accelerated job creation while continuing the work of ensuring that our debt is stabilised over the medium term”.

Gordhan, most recently minister of cooperative governance and traditional affairs, was due to be sworn in Monday morning at 10 a.m.” local time (0800 GMT), but the office of President Jacob Zuma announced that the newly appointed finance minister will not be sworn in because he is already a minister.

The Treasury announced Gordhan, who last held the post from 2009 to 2014, will hold a news conference at 1 p.m. local time (1100 GMT) on Monday.

Zuma on Saturday denied rumours he had an affair with the chairwoman of state-owned airline South African Airways amid media speculation the relationship lay behind Nene’s sacking.

The minister had rebuked Dudu Myeni, the airline’s chairwoman and a close ally of Zuma, for mismanaging a 1 billion rand ($62.98 million) deal with Airbus.

Zuma’s office also criticised as a “malicious fabrication” reports that Nene was removed because Myeni was not happy with instructions from the respected former finance minister.

Social media was abuzz on Sunday with calls for anti-Zuma marches. Under the hashtag#ZumaMustFall, individuals on Twitter said they would march in key cities on Wednesday, a public holiday in South Africa and the same day when the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, is expected to raise interest rates - a move set to put emerging markets like South Africa under strain.

Even some supporters of the African National Congress (ANC), Nelson Mandela’s erstwhile liberation movement that has ruled since the end of apartheid in 1994, expressed dismay about Wednesday’s appointment of a Zuma loyalist to the crucial post. They also described his latest appointment as a sign Zuma was losing control.

"It may not be his death knell, but it's certainly the turning of the tide," a former senior anti-apartheid activist and ruling ANC legislator Ben Turok.

Former South African health minister and leading anti-apartheid activist Barbara Hogan on Friday called on Zuma to quit.

Hogan, the highest-profile member of the ANC to come out against the sacking of Nene, said Zuma had crossed a line and needed to be held to account.

South Africa is gearing up for important local elections next year where the ANC is expected to face stiff competition from the Democratic Alliance in urban areas, including the economic hub ofJohannesburg. The countryside remains an ANC stronghold.

Significant erosion of ANC control in metropolitan powerbases could strengthen Zuma’s opponents, especially if South Africans blame him for the floundering economy.

Analyst Razia Khan of Standard Chartered Bank said the week’s turmoil that saw the nation’s currency plunge nearly 9 percent was "perhaps the first instance since 2007 that Zuma has come under severe pressure within the party".

Burundi Pierre Nkurunziza ethnic conflict Africa france 24 Burundi’s worsening crisis ‘is political, not ethnic’

http://www.france24.com/en/20151214-burundi-crisis-civil-war-pierre-nkurunziza-hrw

A deadly burst of violence in troubled Burundi has stoked fears that the country’s political crisis could escalate into a full-blown conflict, barely a decade after the end of a civil war fought largely along ethnic lines.

Dozens of people were killed on Friday after coordinated attacks on three military sites prompted a fierce crackdown by security forces in and around the capital, Bujumbura.

The army said 87 people died during and after the attacks, including eight soldiers and 79 people it identified as "enemies" of the government. But other sources said the real toll was significantly higher.

Several witnesses quoted by AFP and REUTERS news agencies accused the security forces of extrajudicial killings, describing officers breaking down doors in search of young men and shooting them at close range.

Some of the victims had their arms tied behind their backs, they said.

“Figures are still unconfirmed, but credible local sources at the weekend were saying that more than 100 people had been killed – including people not involved in the attacks on the military,” said Carina Tertsakian, Burundi researcher for Human Rights Watch (HRW), in an interview with FRANCE 24.

Tertsakian called for “a serious, independent investigation to establish the exact circumstances of the killings”, noting that Burundi’s “politicised and corrupt judicial system” was not up to the task.

She pointed out that police and local authorities had swiftly removed bodies in the wake of the killings, thereby compromising the investigation.

‘Not like the 1990s’

The outburst of violence was the deadliest since President Pierre Nkurunziza announced in April he would seek a third term in office, a move his opponents described as unconstitutional.

Since then, the country has been through a botched coup, a boycotted election, a failed African mediation and waves of deadly violence.

Prior to Friday’s killings, the United Nations said at least 240 people had been killed in clashes between supporters and opponents of the 51-year-old president, and 200,000 people have fled to neighbouring countries.

Critics say Nkurunziza’s regime has seized on the opportunity to crack down on all forms of dissent, including prominent human rights activists.

The worsening violence has raised fears of a return to civil war and stirred the spectre of ethnic strife, a decade after the end of a 1993-2006 conflict between rebels from the country’s ethnic Hutu majority and an army dominated by minority Tutsis.

Some 300,000 people were killed in the war, which began just a few months before a genocide of mostly Tutsis in neighbouring Rwanda, home to a similar ethnic mix.

VIDEO: BURUNDI TENSE AFTER DAY OF BLOODSHED

“The latest killings definitely represent an escalation, but the violence has swung up and down throughout the crisis and the situation is still very unpredictable,” said HRW’s Tertsakian.

While stressing the urgency of the situation, she cautioned against drawing parallels with the ethnic bloodshed that once scarred the country.

“It’s a different situation from the 1990s,” she said. “This is not an ethnic conflict but a political one, pitting a president who is clinging on to power against a variety of opponents.”

Tertsakian said a handful of politicians had indulged in some sort of ethnic rhetoric to whip up support, but that they had largely failed to ethnicise the crisis.

She added that people targeted by security forces included both Tutsis and Hutus opposed to Nkurunziza.

Time for diplomacy

Friday’s killings raised alarm bells around the world, prompting the US State Department to urge all US citizens in the country to “leave as soon as it feasible to do so”.

But despite the growing alarm, HRW’s Tertsakian said Nkurunziza’s regime remained in denial about the volatile situation.

“Government officials have released statements that are quite shocking in their apparent indifference to the killings, suggesting the situation is calm and under control,” she said.

Florent Geel of the Paris-based International Human Rights Federation (FIDH) said the Burundian regime remained “stubbornly deaf” to both domestic and international pressure for a negotiated solution.

He also noted that the festering crisis had led to a “radicalisation of the opposition”, as evidenced by Friday’s coordinated attacks on military targets.

Geel said the United Nations and African Union had to step up the pressure on Burundi’s authorities and push for a government of national unity.

“The UN’s Human Rights body will hold a special session in Geneva on Thursday. We’re expecting them to unveil strong measures, such as sending a team of negotiators and deploying a police force to monitor the situation,” he told FRANCE 24.

Following Friday’s violence, the European Union urged Burundi's opposing sides to begin a political dialogue with Uganda acting as mediator.

As a sweetener, EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said the bloc stood ready to provide a financial contribution to get the talks off to an "immediate start".

“We need a massive diplomatic push and we need it fast,” said Geel. “If not, we could end up in six months with UN peacekeepers stuck in yet another inextricable conflict.”

Nigeria seeks $14b to revive Lake Chad, rehabilitate communities

FOLLOWING the dwindling fortunes of the Sahel area, Nigeria has appealed to the G7 and the United States for financial assistance to meet the high technological expertise and infrastructure needed to revive the Lake Chad.

President Muhammadu Buhari who spoke at the Africa Renewable and Adapation/Loss and Damage Initiative hosted by the Committee of the African Heads of State and Government on Climate Change (CAHOSCC)  as part of the on-going UN Climate Change Conference (COP 21),  disclosed that  $14 billion is urgently needed to revive the Lake Chad and save communities dependent on the lake from extinction.

The Lake Chad Replenishment Project has been proposed over a decade ago following sharp reduction in its size by over 93 per cent from 25,000 square kilometers in 1925 to barely 2,500 at present.

The dwindling lake is source of water to 70 million people in West Africa, mainly from Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon and Niger.

Research conducted by a professor in London University and published more than three decades ago had predicted that unless one or some of the rivers from the Central African region are diverted to empty into the Lake Chad basin, the river will dry up.

Buhari said the Federal Government welcomes the Lake Chad Development and Climate Resilience Plan, and the Lake Chad Basin Commission and international partners for designing this climate-based plan.
“In all, the experience of countries sharing the Lake Chad further illustrates the mutual challenge we face today and which must be collectively addressed without further delay. Regrettably, the world is leaving behind millions of people who depend on the lake for their survival.”

According to the President, the shrinkage of the lake had resulted in increased social conflicts, high rates of migration and cross border movements.
“Nigeria has a large population of over 170 million people and in some parts of Northern Nigeria, a farm that used to belong to 10 people now belongs to over 100 people. They have no other place to live and no land for cultivation,’’ he said.

In the event attended by French President,  Francois Hollande, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and several African leaders,Buhari urged leaders from the developed countries to make revival of the Lake Chad a top priority.

Buhari also used the occasion to woo investors in the energy sector, especially the use of natural gas to boost the country’s energy needs. “Nigeria welcomes international partnerships and initiatives for lower carbon in the oil and gas sector that focuses on reducing natural gas flaring and capturing the product for commercial use,” he added.

Chairperson of the African Union, Dr. Nkosazana Zuma stated that Africa needs to drive an economy that is climate resilient, less carbon intensive , closes the energy deficit and reduces poverty.
She said the continent needs to strengthen its existing initiatives such as Climate Change Action in Africa and the Climate for Development in Africa Programme.

http://www.ngrguardiannews.com/2015/12/nigeria-seeks-14b-to-revive-lake-chad-rehabilitate-communities/

Somalia fighting: 30 dead, 40 000 flee

New York - The United Nations says renewed fighting between armed forces in Somalia's central Galmudug region and semi-autonomous Puntland to the north have killed more than 30 people and forced 40 000 people to flee according to estimates.

UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said on Monday that UN aid agencies and international humanitarian organisations have temporarily relocated because of the latest fighting which began on November 28.

Dujarric said this has left a gap in providing basic services to vulnerable communities in the area though local non-governmental organizations are providing mobile health care, water and sanitation services.

He said the UN humanitarian agency continues to warn that Somalia's needs "are immense," with an estimated 4.9 million people in need of assistance and 1.1 million displaced around the country.

http://www.news24.com/Africa/News/somalia-fighting-30-dead-40-000-flee-20151201

Somalia’s battle against al-Shabab

Al-Shabaab militants in Somalia have overrun another town – this time Buqda in central Somalia, following the departure of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) forces.

Despite pledging to return to retake the area, originally liberated from the militants only weeks before, Buqda became the third town to fall into the hands of the Takfiri group in a matter of days, joining El Saliindi, 65 km south of the capital, Mogadishu, and Kuntuwarey, on the road between the capital and the port of Barawe, both in the Lower Shabelle region.

Somalia has been assisted in its fight against al-Shabaab by its neighbors. That support has cost the assisting countries on the border with Somalia – especially Kenya – dear. The attack on Garissa University, which claimed the lives of 150 people, remains fresh in the mind. But what of the rest of the world? Are they doing enough or has Somalia been left to go it alone in the battle against al-Shabaab?

http://america.aljazeera.com/search.html?q=africa (video link)

I know Zambia’s economic problems are not spiritual-President Lungu

President Edgar Lungu has urged Zambians not lose sight of their commitment to God despite the economic hardships that the country is currently undergoing.

The President says he is aware that the challenges the country is currently going through are secular in nature but that there is nothing wrong with seeking God’s guidance and intervention in the problem.

ZANIS in Ndola reports that the President said this upon arrival at Simon Mwansa Kapwepwe International Airport in Ndola where he is to cheer the Zambia National Soccer team in its match against Sudan this afternoon.

The President, who was received by Sports Minister, Vincent Mwale, is this afternoon expected to lead thousands of soccer fans to cheer the national team.

President Lungu said it would be wrong for Zambians to forget their commitment to God just because of the economic hardships the country is currently facing.

“Even if we have economic problems we should not lose sight and forget about our God. Some people are saying the economic problems are not spiritual yes they are not but let us not forget our commitment to God,” he said.

The President has since called on soccer fans to turn up in large numbers to support the Chipolopolo.

Sub-Saharan Africa currency crisis persists

A currency risk that increased notably over the past year in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is seen remaining elevated over the next 18 month with the South African rand depreciating further, according to research by Oxford University’s NKC African Economics (NKC).

A depreciating rand, according to south African-based independent Zimbabwean financial analyst Coll Ndlovu, can be beneficial to Zimbabwean consumers in the form of cheaper imported goods, given that the country imports most of its products from South Africa, hence signs of deflation within the Zimbabwean economy.

 

In a regional SSA short-term exchange rate outlook, NKC said the fragile South African rand will primarily be a barometer of regional market perceptions with regard to US debt curve repricing and China-related growth concerns.

“We expect the rand to depreciate from an average of R13,87/$ in 2015 Q4 to R14, 22/$ in 2016 Q,” reads part of the report.

“We ascribe a 60% probability to US monetary policy tightening by December. Under this assumption, we anticipate the rand to trend somewhat firmer in successive quarters, averaging R14,09/$ in Q2, R13,99/$ in Q3 and R13,89/$ in Q4. Risks are however, tilted to the downside — ie rand weakness,” added NKC.

The research unit said currencies in the SSA region have had a tumultuous ride this year, undermined by a prolonged commodity price slump, and the resultant spillover effects to the balance of payments and fiscal positions, as well as global growth concerns and external monetary policy decisions.

The research unit argued a result monetary policy, on aggregate, is expected to be skewed towards aggressive tightening over the next 18 months as price stability will be favoured above short-term growth potential.

NKC said the fragile Zambian kwacha — which has been hit by a severe shock to the terms of trade — is susceptible to rapid depreciation as a loss of confidence incentivises front-loading of dollar purchases.

“The loss of confidence in the kwacha, as well as political uncertainty surrounding the election next year, could see the exchange rate remain weaker than the estimated equilibrium value for an extended period of time,” said NKC.

“It is crucial that confidence be restored in the kwacha in order to limit the spillover effects to the sovereign balance sheet. With the budget speech for 2016 calling for a further increase in commercial external borrowing, Zambia faces a conundrum. We argue that Zambia needs to urgently seek support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and/or World Bank to meet borrowing requirements and re-establish investor confidence,” added NKC.

Another devaluation of the Angolan kwanza before the end of the year to Kz144,5/$ from the current rate of Kz134,63/$ is forecasted by NKC.

“Further shocks to the oil price hold a risk that the (Angolan) central bank will introduce more restrictive capital controls,” said the research unit.

NKC said it expects world GDP growth to equate to 2,5% this year before accelerating to 2,7% in 2016, a downward revision from an earlier projection of 2,6% for 2015 and 3% growth next year.

“Slow world trade growth — which incentivises competitive devaluations — as well as deteriorating terms of trade, rising inflation differentials, adverse weather conditions as well as foreign factors pertaining to US yield curve repricing are expected to increasingly weigh on SSA currencies in coming months,” said NKC.

Drought Grips South Africa

Johannesburg - After one of the driest rainy seasons on record, South Africa is in the grip of a severe drought.

This has placed a strain on water supplies across the country, affecting 2.7 million households.

The hardest hit are those living in rural areas, where residents have to collect water in buckets once a day.

With the drought persisting, South Africa has now declared five of its nine provinces a drought disaster for agriculture.

The lack of rain has had a dramatic impact on crops. According to Senzeni Zokwana, the agriculture minister, the average maize yield has been the lowest since 2008.

South Africa has failed to produce enough to maize to export to neighbouring Botswana and Swaziland.

This means that not only will prices be forced to rise locally, but Zokwana claimed that if the drought persisted, it could become a regional disaster.

South Africa often suffers a drought during an El Nino event. El Nino is the natural warming of the surface temperatures of the Pacific Ocean, which occurs approximately every two to seven years.

The change in the ocean temperature has been seen to have a dramatic effect on the weather around the world.

The current El Nino event is one of the strongest on record, and is still strengthening.

This is not good news for the provinces of Northwest, Kwa-Zulu Natal and Mpumalanga, which are the worst hit by the drought.

In these provinces, the majority of the rain falls between October and March, but with El Nino expected to dominate the weather for the coming months, the prospect of decent rainfall looks slim.