Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth remains strong and should accelerate to 5.8 percent in 2015 but if the Ebola outbreak in its western corner is protracted or spreads it will have “dramatic consequences” for that zone, the IMF said on Tuesday.
In its latest World Economic Outlook, the Fund said Africa should repeat 2013’s growth rate of 5.1 percent this year and then accelerate in 2015 as infrastructure investments boost efficiency and the service sectors and agriculture flourish.
The 2015 forecast was an improvement on the 5.5 percent growth for the overall region projected by the IMF in April, Reuters reports.
“This overall positive outlook is, however, overshadowed by the dire situation in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, where the current Ebola outbreak is exacting a heavy human and economic toll,” the report’s Sub-Saharan Africa section said according to Reuters. “Should the Ebola outbreak become more protracted or spread to more countries, it would have dramatic consequences for economic activity in the west African region,”.
The security situation in several parts of Sub-Saharan Africa remained fragile, the IMF said, noting rumbling internal conflicts in South Sudan and Central African Republic.
Growth in South Africa, the continent’s most advanced economy, had been lacklustre, hit by protracted strikes, low business confidence and tight electricity supply, the IMF said.
By contrast, Nigeria – the continent’s top oil producer which overtook South Africa as its biggest economy this year after a dramatic GDP rebasing – is forecast to expand 7 percent this year and 7.3 percent in 2015.
In East Africa, South Sudan’s economy is projected to grow fasted with 19 percent in 2015 coming out of -12.3 percent negative growth in 2014.
Other selected regional countries such as Ethiopia are estimated to grow 8.5 percent, Kenya 6.2 percent, Djibouti 5.5 percent, Sudan 3.7 percent and Eritrea 2.1 percent in 2015, according to the IMF.
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